Method
Scenario planning
Stress-test decisions against the futures that could happen.
Scenario planning explained
What it is
Scenario planning evaluates how decisions perform across a range of plausible futures, rather than betting on one forecast.
Why it matters
The future is uncertain; a plan that is optimal only for the expected case can be fragile when reality differs.
Where planning teams fail
Planning happens against a single base case, so teams are caught flat-footed when conditions shift.
How RabbitHawk applies it
RabbitHawk compares feasible actions across stated scenarios. Where an explicit probability model is supported, it reports modelled outcome probabilities and their assumptions; otherwise it shows sensitivities without invented weights.
Related methods
Keep exploring
- probabilistic forecasting
Probabilistic forecasting
Represent ranges and likelihoods alongside the central forecast.
- hierarchical reconciliation
Hierarchical reconciliation
Make forecasts coherent across the specified aggregation structure.
- forecast bias diagnostics
Forecast bias diagnostics
Find the systematic errors quietly distorting your plans.
Apply this to your data
See how RabbitHawk would use this method to improve your decisions.
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